Overview

• In August, Redfin counted roughly 260,000 condo sellers versus 150,000 buyers, a 72.3% surplus and the fifth straight month above 70% after an 81% peak in April.
• By comparison, single-family homes had about a 30% seller surplus in August and townhouses 38%, underscoring condos’ uniquely lopsided market.
• Florida leads the imbalance with about 1.5 million condos and five of the 10 metros with the largest surpluses; Miami logged 11,486 sellers versus 3,270 buyers and Tampa 5,183 versus 1,519.
• Redfin attributes the gap to rising HOA and insurance costs, high mortgage rates, tougher post‑Surfside inspection and reserve rules, natural‑disaster risk, and new construction adding supply.
• Despite the glut, prices have only edged down: the median condo sold for $350,000 in August (off 1% year over year), time to contract stretched to 58 days—the longest for August in 12 years—and investor purchases fell 13% in Q2, giving buyers room to negotiate concessions.