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Conagra Beats Q1 Estimates, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook as Tariffs Lift Cost Inflation

Investors now weigh tariff-driven cost pressures against a high payout commitment.

Overview

  • Fiscal Q1 2026 net sales were $2.63 billion, down 5.8% year over year, and adjusted EPS was $0.39, down 26.4%, with both metrics topping consensus.
  • Full-year guidance was reiterated for organic net sales of −1% to +1%, adjusted operating margin of 11.0%–11.5%, adjusted EPS of $1.70–$1.85, interest expense near $390 million, and an adjusted tax rate around 24%.
  • Management’s outlook now explicitly models cost inflation in the low 7% range, combining core inflation slightly above 4% with roughly 3% from tariffs on tinplate steel, aluminum, and select China imports, to be addressed through cost savings, alternative sourcing, and targeted pricing.
  • Segment results showed broad softness, including Grocery & Snacks down 8.7%, Refrigerated & Frozen down 0.9% with slight organic growth, International down 18%, and Foodservice down 0.8%.
  • Analysts flagged ongoing headwinds, with BofA staying Underperform at $18, RBC at Sector Perform with a $22 target, and Evercore ISI trimming its target to $23, as debate continues over a payout ratio near 80% versus the company’s 50%–55% target and shares last down 1.24% to $19.05.