Overview
- At a recent Midtown Manhattan CEO survey, 66% said they will cut or hold headcount in 2026, with roughly one-third planning to hire.
- The U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6% in November, a four-year high that signals a cooling labor market.
- Shopify, Chime and Wells Fargo indicated they expect flat or smaller workforces next year, with leaders emphasizing headcount discipline and technology-driven efficiency.
- JPMorgan forecasts "uncomfortably slow" labor-market growth in early 2026 with unemployment around 4.5%, then a late-year pickup helped by tax cuts, clearer tariff signals and further Fed rate reductions.
- Analysts point to elevated 2025 corporate bankruptcies and a tighter labor supply from stepped-up immigration enforcement, even as AI-related capital spending continues.