Overview
- Researchers analyzed on-chain activity on Polygon and estimate roughly a quarter of Polymarket transactions over three years were wash trades, based on patterns across 1.26 million wallets.
- About 14% of wallets showed behavior consistent with coordinated self-dealing, with limited interaction beyond linked counterparties.
- Artificial activity varied over time, peaking near 60% in December 2023, dropping to about 5% by May, then rising to roughly 20% by October.
- Sports markets showed the greatest impact at 45% of all-time volume, compared with 17% in elections, 12% in politics, and 3% in crypto-related markets.
- The study did not allege platform involvement, citing structural enablers such as no fees and airdrop speculation tied to a prospective POLY token; Polymarket says it is reviewing the findings as reporting indicates record growth and a potential ICE investment of up to $2 billion.