Overview
- An on-chain analysis of Polygon transactions estimates roughly 25% of Polymarket activity over the past three years consisted of wash trades.
- About 14% of 1.26 million wallets exhibited coordinated self-dealing patterns identified by algorithms tracing repetitive and circular flows.
- Artificial activity fluctuated sharply, peaking near 60% in December 2023, falling to about 5% by May, then rising to roughly 20% by October.
- Manipulation was concentrated by category, with approximately 45% of all-time sports volume affected, 17% in elections, 12% in politics, and 3% in crypto markets.
- The authors did not allege direct involvement by Polymarket as the company reviews the findings, while the platform reports record growth after a POLY token announcement and U.S. return plans, and ICE is reportedly weighing up to $2 billion in investment.