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Colts Favored Over Titans in Week 3 as Model Projects 24–19 Indianapolis Win

Data-driven simulations put Indianapolis near 67% to win, pointing bettors to the safer moneyline.

09/17/2025
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Overview

  • The AFC South matchup kicks off Sunday, Sept. 21 at 1 p.m. ET at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
  • Aggregated sportsbook odds at publication listed Colts -3.5, moneyline -198 for Indianapolis, Titans +176, and a 43.5 total, with lines subject to change.
  • Dimers ran 10,000 simulations, giving the Colts a 67% win probability, a 54% chance to cover -3.5, and a projected final of 24–19.
  • Player projections highlight Jonathan Taylor as Indianapolis’ top rushing option and most likely anytime touchdown scorer, with Daniel Jones leading Colts passing output.
  • The preview notes Tennessee’s injury and depth concerns with pressure on QB Cam Ward, while separate opinion coverage cited a wider -4.5 spread at FanDuel and predicted a comfortable Colts win.