Overview

• On July 9, CSU cut its seasonal outlook from 17 named storms to 16, lowered projected hurricanes to eight and major hurricanes to three.
• Observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean wind shear in June and July prompted forecasters to scale back storm formation estimates.
• Researchers now put the chance of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall at 48%, above the 43% long-term average.
• Florida faces the most exposure with a 90% probability of a named storm and a 62% probability of a hurricane tracking within 50 miles.
• Alabama’s risks are assessed at 64% for a named storm, 32% for a hurricane and 10% for a major hurricane passing nearby.