Overview

• Seven basin states must tell the Bureau of Reclamation by Nov. 11 whether a consensus deal is likely, or risk the agency pivoting to draft a federal plan ahead of new rules due Oct. 1, 2026.
• Upper Basin leaders reject mandatory, verifiable rollbacks tied to future growth, while Lower Basin negotiators press for enforceable reductions by all parties to match the river’s shrinking supply.
• Wyoming’s lead negotiator says Lower Basin proposals would foreclose new projects and effectively roll back existing use, a claim California and Arizona officials dispute as they call for no net demand increases.
• Reservoir storage remains precarious, with Lake Mead at 31% and projections warning of new lows and potential release constraints at Lake Powell if dry conditions repeat.
• States continue to discuss a supply-based “natural flow” approach using recent averages at Lees Ferry, even as researchers and water managers stress that agriculture, the river’s largest consumer, must be part of near-term cuts.