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4mo ago

Collapse of Atlantic Ocean Conveyor Could Trigger Ice-Age Winters in Europe

Recent climate models project an 80% AMOC slowdown under 2°C warming with winter temperatures dropping as low as –30°C, sea levels rising by 50 cm, precipitation falling by 20%, intensified storms, higher flood risk.

TOPSHOT - An aerial view of pancake ice and melt on July 19, 2022 as captured on a NASA Gulfstream V plane while on an airborne mission with University of Texas scientists to measure melting Arctic seaice. New observations from ICESAT-2 show remarkable Arctic Sea ice thinning in just three years. Over the past two decades, the Arctic has lost about one-third of its winter sea ice volume, largely due to a decline in sea ice that persists over several years, called multiyear ice, according to a new study. The study also found sea ice is likely thinner than previous estimates. (Photo by Kerem Yücel / AFP) (Photo by KEREM YUCEL/AFP via Getty Images)
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Snow-covered street in London, UK. Credit: Julian Nieman / Alamy Stock Photo

Overview

  • Researchers used a modern climate model to simulate an 80% weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under 2°C of global warming.
  • Under that scenario, European winter extremes would plunge to –30°C in parts of Scotland and –19°C in London as sea ice advances into the North Sea.
  • A stalled AMOC would raise sea levels by roughly 50 cm along European coasts and cut precipitation by about 20%, elevating flood and infrastructure risks.
  • Even as winters chill, summers would still experience intense heatwaves, producing unprecedented seasonal temperature swings.
  • Scientists warn that timing and likelihood of a full collapse remain uncertain and stress that only steep, immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions can prevent these outcomes.