Overview
- Coinbase Institutional’s Dec. 6 market note says crypto may be set for a December recovery, pointing to a rebound in its global M2 liquidity index.
- Markets are pricing a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut, with odds around 93% on Polymarket and 86% on CME FedWatch, which Coinbase cites as a key catalyst.
- Bitcoin traded more than three standard deviations below its 90-day trend in November, alongside signs of long-term holder distribution and digital asset products dipping below net asset value.
- Stablecoin–altcoin gauges signal potential rotation into risk per Altcoin Vector, while a softer dollar and ongoing AI-related strength are cited as additional tailwinds.
- Risks remain, with the U.S. 10-year yield above 4% and set for a big weekly rise, which analyst Ted Pillows says could dampen risk-on sentiment.