Overview
- Market pricing shows high conviction for a Federal Reserve cut next week, with odds at 93% on Polymarket and 86% on CME FedWatch, which Coinbase cites as the key catalyst.
- Coinbase reports an uptick in its global M2 liquidity gauge and notes bitcoin traded more than three standard deviations below its 90‑day trend in November, with some digital asset products briefly below NAV.
- Altcoin Vector’s data indicate a divergence between stablecoin dominance and altcoin performance that has historically preceded rotations back into higher‑risk tokens.
- Institutional access headlines include Vanguard reversing its crypto ETF trading ban and Bank of America allowing advisers to recommend up to 4% crypto allocations.
- Countervailing risks remain, with analysts pointing to 10‑year Treasury yields above 4% and the recent memory of ETF redemptions and forced liquidations that could limit follow‑through.