Overview
- At the close of Coinbase’s Oct. 30 Q3 earnings call, Brian Armstrong recited “Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3” after noting he was tracking a prediction market, immediately resolving mention bets on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Roughly $80,000–$84,000 traded on Kalshi and about $3,900–$4,000 on Polymarket, producing small individual payouts due to thin liquidity.
- A Coinbase spokesperson called the remarks lighthearted and said company policies prohibit employees, including executives, from participating in related prediction markets.
- Reactions diverged as Arca’s Jeff Dorman labeled the move market manipulation and a reputational misstep, while figures like Vitalik Buterin characterized it as harmless fun.
- Coverage noted that mention markets are structurally easy to force, contrasting them with deeper Polymarket events such as a New York City mayoral market with about $22 million in open interest where shifting odds by 10 percentage points would cost around $1 million, with legal exposure described as limited but reputational risk elevated.