Overview
- Brian Armstrong told listeners he was tracking a mentions market and then explicitly said “Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3” before ending the call.
- The shoutouts drove odds for terms like “Web3” and “Ethereum” to nearly 100% and led to payouts in small pools with roughly $4,000 on Polymarket and about $80,000 on Kalshi.
- Armstrong later called the move spontaneous after a teammate shared a link, and Coinbase said the remarks were lighthearted while stressing policies that bar employees from participating in prediction markets involving the company.
- Reaction ranged from praise to sharp criticism, with Arca’s Jeff Dorman calling it manipulation and Vitalik Buterin suggesting Armstrong thought he was having fun.
- Analysis contrasted the ease of moving thin mentions markets with deeper venues such as a $22 million New York City mayoral market that would take roughly $1 million to shift odds by 10 percentage points.