Overview

• Cocoa prices more than doubled from early 2024 and hit late‑2024 peaks; through September the average wholesale price was about 35% below January levels yet roughly 63% higher than January 2024.
• Heavy rains, black pod disease and El Niño‑linked drought cut West African crops, with Ivory Coast output about 25.3% lower and Ghana down 31.3% compared with prior years.
• Consumers are shifting to cheaper non‑chocolate treats and smaller packs, and the National Retail Federation forecasts $3.9 billion in Halloween candy spending.
• Chocolate makers raised prices and downsized packages to manage costs; Hershey says cocoa was about 20% of its 2024 cost of goods and Mondelez estimates around 10%, while recent West Africa pod counts are 7% above the five‑year average.
• Higher farmer payments in Ivory Coast and Ghana helped push cocoa to a 10‑month low and spurred reports of oversold positioning, but analysts expect wholesale prices to stay elevated for at least another year as new plantings take time to bear.