Overview
- The Coalition announced on Tuesday that it would cut net overseas migration to 100,000 a year in its first two years rising to about 160,000 by year four and reduce the stock of temporary visa holders by roughly 650,000 over four years.
- Key mechanics include abolishing many graduate and bridging pathways, forcing most second and subsequent temporary visa applications to be lodged offshore, capping student numbers, halving the humanitarian intake to 10,000, and creating new capped skilled project and agriculture visas.
- The party says it has worked with the Parliamentary Budget Office and is confident the plan is budget neutral but has not published detailed PBO costings or broader economic modelling to support that claim.
- Business groups, universities and economists have warned the cuts will damage growth, worsen skills shortages and hit sectors such as construction, aged care and international education while independent PBO scenarios reported by outlets show sustained NOM cuts could materially worsen the federal budget.
- One Nation and some Nationals say the policy reflects their influence and migration has become a central electoral battleground ahead of the 2028 vote while the Coalition plans to publish fuller costings closer to the election.