Overview

• An announced cross-party deal collapsed and a joint press conference was scrapped after SPD lawmakers, backed by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, rejected a lottery fallback for the new service model.
• Pistorius backs a voluntary-first approach paired with comprehensive mustering of each male cohort starting in 2027, preceded by an online questionnaire from early 2026, to help add about 80,000 troops toward a 260,000 target.
• CDU/CSU negotiators want a contingency lottery to compel selected men to appear for mustering and, if needed, serve when volunteer numbers fall short, while CSU leader Markus Söder signals openness to non-lottery obligation options.
• Legal experts are split: former constitutional judge Udo di Fabio deems need-based selection and even a lottery defensible, whereas scholars including Karin Groh, Alexander Thiele and Volker Boehme-Neßler warn it could breach the Basic Law’s equality and ‘Wehrgerechtigkeit’ requirements.
• Despite the flap, the first reading remains scheduled this week, an expert hearing is slated for November 10, the law is still targeted to take effect January 1, 2026, and reporting cites NATO pressure for additional brigades alongside major tank and Boxer purchases.