Overview
- Citing aggregated polling, Enten said Democrats are favored in all three contests and remarked that President Donald Trump “can’t be too happy” with the data.
- In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds roughly a six-point edge over Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli, which Enten called the closest of the three races.
- Virginia polling shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger ahead of Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by double digits, including a YouGov survey putting the margin at about 14 points.
- In New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani leads independent Andrew Cuomo by sizable margins, with CNN citing a gap near 16 points and an Emerson poll estimating roughly 25 points, while Republican Curtis Sliwa trails further.
- Enten notes Democrats have swept these off-year races only five times in the past 90 years, and each instance was followed by a Democratic House majority the next year.