Overview
- President Trump publicly said he would beat Kamala Harris by 25 points if the 2024 race were run again and CNN analyst Harry Enten called that claim “just not real.”
- Two recent hypothetical 'do-over' polls cited on CNN showed Harris ahead by mid-single digits, with UMass Amherst at +6 and an NBC News survey at +8.
- Independent voters are driving the shift, moving roughly 20 points away from Trump in do-over responses and reversing a small 2024 advantage into a double-digit lead for Harris among that group.
- Enten highlighted that Trump’s overall approval has remained net-negative in polls for an extended stretch, and pollsters find his endorsements often hurt Republican candidates so he is focusing efforts in deep-red states instead of swing states.
- The do-over questions are hypothetical and the Constitution prevents a third term, but the polling trend could translate into real midterm risks for down-ballot Republicans by changing turnout and voter choices.