Overview

• In a Tuesday CNN segment, Harry Enten labeled the 2025 New Jersey and Virginia contests the “biggest flashing red siren” for Republicans.
• Prediction markets at the time gave Democrat Mikie Sherrill an 89% chance over Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger a 94% chance over Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia.
• Enten said current polling shows Democrats with high single-digit leads in both states, stronger than the landscape seen in 2021.
• He underscored that since 1989 the party sweeping both governorships has gone on to win the U.S. House the following year in six of seven cycles.
• Enten framed the contests as early indicators for 2026 rather than firm forecasts, noting such probabilities and polling snapshots can shift.