CNI Sees Brazil’s 2026 Growth Slowing to 1.8% as High Rates Weigh

Overview

• After an estimated 2.5% expansion in 2025, CNI projects GDP growth of 1.8% in 2026 in its newly released 2025–2026 outlook.
• CNI expects the Selic to end 2026 at 12% from 15% now, with inflation at 4.1% and real rates near 7.9%, a level it says restrains investment.
• Industry is forecast to grow 1.1% in 2026, with manufacturing at just 0.5%, pressured by weaker domestic demand and rising imports as the labor market softens.
• Construction is seen advancing 2.5% on housing-credit measures, extraction rising 1.6% on oil and iron ore output, and agribusiness flattening after a strong 2025.
• Exports are projected to increase 1.6% in 2026, following an estimated $350 billion in 2025 exports and $293.4 billion in imports, with trade shaped by U.S. tariffs, lower oil demand and weaker demand from Argentina.