Overview
- The agency reports resale condo prices are about 28% below early‑2022 peaks after 13 quarters, versus a 43% drop over the same span in the early 1990s.
- CMHC forecasts prices will begin rising within a few quarters, contrasting with the seven‑year slide that followed the 1989 peak.
- Preconstruction sales sit at a 33‑year low with some buyers defaulting, leading to deposit walkaways, lawsuits and developers repossessing units.
- Stricter financing—such as stress‑test rules and typical requirements to presell roughly 70% of units before construction—has reduced speculative building and limited delinquencies.
- Condo starts have fallen sharply, which CMHC says will mean relatively few new units after 2026, while RBC describes the preconstruction segment as frozen and projects a slower thaw into 2026–2027.