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CMHC Says GTA Condo Slump Is Milder Than 1990s, Expects Rebound Within Quarters

CMHC links resilience to stricter lending plus scarce supply.

Overview

  • The agency reports resale condo prices are about 28% below early‑2022 peaks after 13 quarters, versus a 43% drop over the same span in the early 1990s.
  • CMHC forecasts prices will begin rising within a few quarters, contrasting with the seven‑year slide that followed the 1989 peak.
  • Preconstruction sales sit at a 33‑year low with some buyers defaulting, leading to deposit walkaways, lawsuits and developers repossessing units.
  • Stricter financing—such as stress‑test rules and typical requirements to presell roughly 70% of units before construction—has reduced speculative building and limited delinquencies.
  • Condo starts have fallen sharply, which CMHC says will mean relatively few new units after 2026, while RBC describes the preconstruction segment as frozen and projects a slower thaw into 2026–2027.