Overview
- A University of North Florida poll from Oct. 12–19 showed Byron Donalds ahead 49% to 47%, and the contest remains highly competitive on Election Day, Nov. 3.
- Donalds carries structural advantages, including roughly a 1.5 million Republican registration edge and a large fundraising lead over Democrat David Jolly.
- Jolly has proposed an immediate moratorium on hyperscale data centers, while Donalds says siting should be decided locally and has promised a state study with results expected in 2027.
- The two men offer sharply different approaches to artificial intelligence, property taxes and homeowners insurance, and those policy differences are central to late voter decisions.
- Turnout among independents and undecided Black voters is expected to decide the outcome, and Democrats hope a strong Jolly showing could at least erode the GOP's legislative supermajority.