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Climate Risks Could Reshape U.S. Housing Market as Foreclosures Surge

A new report projects a 380% rise in weather-related foreclosures by 2035, with billions in lender losses and systemic insurance gaps driving the crisis.

HOUSTON, TX - AUGUST 30:  Flooded homes are shown near Lake Houston following Hurricane Harvey August 30, 2017 in Houston, Texas. The city of Houston is still experiencing severe flooding in some areas due to the accumulation of historic levels of rainfall, though the storm has moved to the north and east.  (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • First Street's latest analysis reveals that climate-driven foreclosures may rise to 30% of all defaults by 2035, up from 7% today.
  • The report estimates $1.2 billion in current annual lender losses from weather-related foreclosures, increasing to $5.4 billion by 2035.
  • Flood risk is significantly underestimated, with 17.7 million properties needing mandatory flood insurance—more than double FEMA’s count.
  • Rising insurance premiums, tied to extreme weather, are driving up foreclosure rates, with a 1% premium increase linked to a 1% rise in foreclosures.
  • NOAA's decision to stop updating its disaster database raises concerns about the accuracy of future climate risk modeling.