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Climate Risks Could Reshape U.S. Housing Market as Foreclosures Surge

A new report projects a 380% rise in weather-related foreclosures by 2035, with billions in lender losses and systemic insurance gaps driving the crisis.

Overview

  • First Street's latest analysis reveals that climate-driven foreclosures may rise to 30% of all defaults by 2035, up from 7% today.
  • The report estimates $1.2 billion in current annual lender losses from weather-related foreclosures, increasing to $5.4 billion by 2035.
  • Flood risk is significantly underestimated, with 17.7 million properties needing mandatory flood insurance—more than double FEMA’s count.
  • Rising insurance premiums, tied to extreme weather, are driving up foreclosure rates, with a 1% premium increase linked to a 1% rise in foreclosures.
  • NOAA's decision to stop updating its disaster database raises concerns about the accuracy of future climate risk modeling.