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2w ago

Climate Prediction Center Puts Fall La Niña Chance at 53%

Any fall La Niña episode is expected to be brief with sea temperatures returning to neutral under unpredictable storm activity.

The seasonal precipitation outlook for November, December and January forecasts drier than average conditions across the southern tier of the United States. The outlook was issued July 17.
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La Niña typically brings drier than average conditions to Southern California and wetter than normal conditions to the north.

Overview

  • The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña watch on August 14, assigning a 53% probability for development this fall.
  • Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific remain near average following a short La Niña event last winter.
  • Forecasters project that cooler-than-normal waters will dissipate within months, restoring neutral conditions by early next year.
  • Typical La Niña winters lean toward wetter conditions in Northern California and drier weather in the south, though short ENSO events can shift those patterns.
  • Scientists warn that atmospheric rivers and other weather systems can override ENSO influences, heightening uncertainty in seasonal forecasts.