Overview

• The Climate Prediction Center has placed odds at roughly 53–56% that La Niña conditions will develop this fall and winter under a formal watch
• Forecasters characterize the emerging signal as relatively weak and anticipate sea surface temperatures will return to neutral within a few months of onset
• Seasonal outlooks tilt toward wetter conditions in far Northern California and the Pacific Northwest and drier conditions in Southern California, though outcomes in the Bay Area remain highly uncertain with a 33–40% chance of below-average rain
• Scientists emphasize that La Niña nudges seasonal averages rather than dictating individual storms, complicating precise local forecasts
• Independent factors, especially atmospheric rivers, have in recent winters overridden typical La Niña patterns to produce heavy rain, flooding and large snowpacks in parts of California