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Climate Prediction Center Issues La Niña Watch for California’s Winter

Forecasters assign about a 55 percent chance of a weak La Niña expected to fade by late winter with California’s rainfall outlook remaining uncertain.

The seasonal precipitation outlook for November, December and January forecasts drier than average conditions across the southern tier of the United States. The outlook was issued July 17.
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La Niña typically brings drier than average conditions to Southern California and wetter than normal conditions to the north.

Overview

  • The watch reflects favorable tropical Pacific conditions this fall but does not guarantee that La Niña will develop.
  • In a typical La Niña pattern, northern California and the Pacific Northwest see above-average precipitation while Southern California trends drier than normal.
  • Meteorologists warn the San Francisco Bay Area sits at an inflection point where it could experience either wetter or drier conditions.
  • Current projections describe the potential La Niña as relatively weak and short-lived, with sea-surface temperatures likely returning to neutral within months.
  • Experts emphasize that atmospheric rivers and other climate variables can override La Niña’s usual influence and drive local weather extremes.