Overview
- The Climate Prediction Center says there is better than an 83% chance the very strong El Niño will persist into the winter of 2026–27.
- Eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have exceeded +4.0°C, a signal researchers identify with an unusually powerful El Niño.
- Storms tied to the event have driven heavy autumn rains across the Four Corners and Desert Southwest and caused localized flooding and property damage.
- Official Bureau of Reclamation measurements show Lake Powell rose about 17 feet in the 30 days before Nov. 4 to roughly 3,536 feet, returning the reservoir above minimum power-pool and reducing immediate hydropower risk.
- Scientists and water managers caution that one wet season will not erase multi-year deficits, forecasts for mountain snowpack remain regionally uncertain, and interstate water allocation and federal management disputes continue to shape the Colorado River’s future.