Overview
- The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), part of the World Climate Research Programme, announced Thursday that it will no longer treat RCP8.5/SSP5‑8.5 as a routine, plausible scenario because its socioeconomic assumptions no longer match observed trends.
- Scientists say scenarios are tools for risk testing not forecasts and stress that removing the extreme pathway does not mean the climate crisis is over or invalidate prior research.
- The UN General Assembly this week adopted Resolution 12760 by a 141–8–28 vote to strengthen the framing of climate protection in human‑rights terms, a political signal that could shape accountability debates even though the resolution is non‑binding.
- Right‑wing politicians including President Donald Trump and some AfD figures seized the CMIP change as proof climate science was wrong, prompting public rebuttals from researchers who warn that such misrepresentation risks weakening policy action.
- Physical risks remain: atmospheric CO2‑equivalent concentrations are at record levels (about 430 ppm in 2026), recent extreme heat events show current harm, and remaining plausible pathways still project multiple degrees of warming with credible overshoot and tipping‑point dangers that would affect health, food and infrastructure.