Overview
- The World Meteorological Organization told leaders it is virtually impossible to prevent passing 1.5°C, prompting disputes over how to reflect that reality in COP30 text.
- UN leaders, including António Guterres and climate chief Simon Stiell, now speak of overshoot and the need to bring temperatures back down after a temporary breach.
- Observations indicate 2024 likely reached about 1.55°C above preindustrial levels for the year while the longer‑term average sits near 1.4°C and has not yet breached the threshold.
- Analyses point to a faster warming rate of roughly 0.25–0.3°C per decade, with contributing factors including declining cloud cover and reduced aerosol cooling.
- The 2025 Global Carbon Budget reports the remaining 1.5°C budget of about 170 billion tonnes CO2 is nearly exhausted as fossil emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, with increases in China (0.4%), the United States (1.9%), India (1.4%) and the European Union (0.4%).