Overview
- This week the Climate Impact Lab published a model-based estimate that the ongoing El Niño could cause about 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.
- National forecasters including NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the Met Office say the event is unusually strong, with eastern equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies above +3.0°C and better than 90% odds of persisting into early 2027.
- The analysis highlights clear hotspots: the Sahel could see roughly 66,800 extra deaths with Nigeria alone about 31,400, and large increases are also projected for Indonesia, India, parts of Southeast Asia and tropical South America.
- The projection draws on empirical temperature–mortality relationships from more than 24,000 regions combined with seasonal forecasts, but the full estimate has not been peer reviewed and excludes deaths from floods, fires and disease.
- Researchers and agencies are urging targeted measures—heat warnings, cooling and hydration centres, protections for outdoor workers and boosted health capacity—to reduce avoidable deaths and to limit wider impacts on food, water and infrastructure.