Overview

• Machine learning analysis by Professor Lance M Leslie and Milton Speer links global warming to a rise in the frequency and intensity of thunderstorm downbursts.
• Each 1°C of warming allows the atmosphere to hold 7% more water vapour, intensifying thunderstorms and the strength of wind gusts.
• Kilometre-wide microbursts can abruptly shift wind speed and direction, producing dangerous low-altitude turbulence for aircraft.
• Smaller planes seating four to 50 passengers are particularly vulnerable to severe wind gusts during takeoff and landing.
• Recent incidents on United Express in March and Ryanair in June 2025, which injured passengers and crew, highlight the need for better forecasting and heightened vigilance by airlines and safety authorities.