Overview

• Every 1°C of warming is projected to cut global food production by 120 calories per person per day, or 4.4 percent of current daily consumption.
• Real-world adaptation measures—including switching crops, shifting planting and harvesting dates, and altering fertilizer use—could offset roughly one-third of climate-related yield losses by 2100.
• Highly productive breadbasket regions such as the US Midwest face the steepest declines, with corn, soybean and wheat yields potentially falling 40–50 percent under high-emission scenarios.
• Rice is the only staple with a possible upside, showing a 50 percent chance of increased yields thanks to benefits from warmer nighttime temperatures, while other major crops carry 70–90 percent odds of decline.
• By 2050, global crop yields are expected to decline by about 8 percent regardless of emissions pathway, rising to losses of 11 percent under net-zero scenarios and 24 percent if warming continues unchecked through 2100.