Overview

• A University of Reading study using 26 climate models projects 16–27% stronger upper-level wind shear and 10–20% lower atmospheric stability between 2015 and 2100 at typical cruising altitudes.
• Under the highest-emissions scenario, vertical wind shear could increase by about 34% in northern mid-latitudes and 27% in southern mid-latitudes.
• Researchers say the combination of increased shear and reduced stability creates more favorable conditions for clear-air turbulence, which is invisible to conventional radar.
• Airlines and researchers are pursuing mitigations including improved forecasting and LIDAR-based detection, with current clear-air turbulence forecast accuracy cited at roughly 70%.
• Context from prior work shows severe clear-air turbulence has risen by up to 55% since 1979 in some regions, and FAA data record dozens of serious passenger and crew injuries from turbulence in recent years.