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Climate Change Made Iberian Fire-Weather 40 Times More Likely, Analysis Finds

The rapid, observation-based review from World Weather Attribution has not yet undergone peer review.

Residents clear bushes and vegetation to prevent wildfires from reaching the village, in Riano, near Leon, Spain, August 18, 2025. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo
A pyrocumulus cloud forms as smoke rises from a wildfire as seen from a cemetery in the village of Vilarmel, Lugo area, Galicia region, Spain, August 16, 2025. REUTERS/Mikel Konate/File Photo
FILE - Firefighters battle a wildfire in Veiga das Meas, northwestern Spain, Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Lalo R. Villar, File)
A wildfire in the mountains of Santa Cristina de Cobres, near Vigo, in the province of Pontevedra, Spain August 21, 2025. REUTERS/Nacho Doce/File Photo

Overview

  • The team reports the fire-favoring conditions were about 30% more intense than in a preindustrial climate.
  • Events that would have been roughly once-in-500-year fire-weather days are now expected about every 15 years, with similar-intensity heatwaves now about every 13 years in a climate roughly 1.3°C warmer.
  • More than 1 million hectares burned across the EU this summer, with Spain and Portugal accounting for about two-thirds, at least eight people died, thousands were evacuated, and rail and motorway links were disrupted.
  • The 13-scientist analysis assessed Daily Severity Rating—combining temperature, humidity, wind and rain—focusing on the most extreme days in northwestern Spain and northern Portugal.
  • Researchers and officials highlighted unmanaged vegetation and rural abandonment as major risk factors, with calls for urgent vegetation control and Spain setting out a 10-point plan to bolster preparedness.