Overview

• The World Weather Attribution rapid analysis, conducted by 28 scientists, is the first in Europe to quantify climate change’s role in wildfire conditions.
• With about 1.3°C of global warming, the study estimates fire‑prone weather is now roughly 10 times more likely than in a preindustrial climate.
• Researchers identify a 14% decline in winter rainfall, an 18% intensification of pre‑fire dry heat, and a 13‑fold jump in weeklong hot‑dry spells as key drivers.
• High‑pressure patterns strengthened Etesian winds that fanned the blazes, complicating tactics that once relied on predictable lulls.
• The 2025 season saw more than 1 million hectares burned, about 20 deaths and over 80,000 evacuations, and scientists are analyzing parallel fires in Spain with results expected to be similar; projections at 2.6°C warming point to events about nine times more likely and 25% more intense.