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Climate Change Drove 2025’s Extreme Weather, Global Attribution Report Finds

The report attributes increased likelihood and severity to human‑caused warming using counterfactual climate models.

Overview

  • World Weather Attribution logged 157 major extreme‑weather events in 2025 worldwide across floods, heatwaves, storms, wildfires, droughts and cold spells.
  • Of 22 events probed with attribution analysis, 17 were made more likely or more intense by anthropogenic warming, while five extreme rainfalls showed no clear signal.
  • Modelled case studies found the August Iberian wildfires were about 40 times more likely and Los Angeles’ January fires about 35% more probable, with roughly 400 deaths and an estimated $30 billion in insured losses.
  • Tropical cyclone Melissa’s peak winds reached about 288 km/h versus an estimated 270 km/h in a no‑warming world, indicating stronger storms under current conditions.
  • The assessment says 2025 is likely the third consecutive year above 1.5°C, as German insurers estimate €2.6 billion in domestic natural‑hazard losses and warn of rising long‑term risk.