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2mo ago

Climate Center Raises La Niña Watch With Modest Odds for a Weak, Short-Lived Event

Forecasts assign a 53–56% chance of La Niña forming this fall with conditions expected to revert to neutral by spring under lingering seasonal uncertainty.

The seasonal precipitation outlook for November, December and January forecasts drier than average conditions across the southern tier of the United States. The outlook was issued July 17.
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La Niña typically brings drier than average conditions to Southern California and wetter than normal conditions to the north.

Overview

  • The Climate Prediction Center has issued a La Niña watch, assigning roughly a 53–56% probability of cooler tropical Pacific waters developing this fall.
  • Sea surface temperatures are currently neutral and models forecast any emerging La Niña to be weak and short-lived, fading back to neutral conditions by late winter.
  • A typical La Niña winter pattern favors wetter conditions in far Northern California and the Pacific Northwest alongside drier weather in Southern California, though Bay Area outcomes remain highly uncertain.
  • Atmospheric rivers and other weather drivers are significant wild cards that can amplify or negate the usual La Niña influences on seasonal rainfall.
  • Regional outlooks predict above-average December–February temperatures across Central and Southern California and a 33–40% chance of below-normal Bay Area precipitation from January to March.