Overview
- Beth Hammack said tariffs and persistent services inflation are key reasons she expects price pressures to stay above target for up to two more years.
- The federal funds rate stands at 4.00% to 4.25%, and CME FedWatch shows an 89.3% probability of a quarter-point cut at the Oct. 29 meeting.
- She said policy should remain restrictive to restore price stability, noting inflation’s recent trend is moving the wrong way.
- Hammack cited emerging signs of labor-market fragility even as the unemployment rate has held between 4.0% and 4.3% over the past year.
- The debate inside the Fed is intensifying, with Chair Jerome Powell flagging upside inflation risks and Governors Michelle Bowman and Stephen Miran advocating multiple cuts in response to labor softness.