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Cleveland-Cliffs Rebounds After KeyBanc Downgrade as Analyst Cuts EBITDA Outlook

KeyBanc cut earnings expectations, flagging softer steel prices plus product-mix costs as it tempered its outlook.

Overview

  • Shares traded up 1.83% to $12.25 on Thursday, recouping a portion of Wednesday’s drop, according to Benzinga Pro.
  • KeyBanc’s Philip Gibbs lowered the rating to Sector Weight from Overweight, citing fading near-term catalysts.
  • The analyst now forecasts a fourth-quarter EBITDA loss of $22 million versus a prior $63 million profit estimate due to weaker spot steel prices and higher costs.
  • His 2026 EBITDA estimate was reduced to $1.33 billion from $1.63 billion, with costs tied to a richer product mix running slightly higher than previously expected.
  • Gibbs highlighted potential non-core asset sales and a possible POSCO joint venture as upside levers with limited visibility, as other firms’ views remain mixed after recent actions by Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs.