Overview
- Negotiators signaled a merged CLARITY draft could arrive this week, but as of Tuesday July 14 key fights over enforceable ethics language, developer liability protections and stablecoin yield limits remained open.
- President Donald Trump publicly urged the Senate to pass the bill and framed it as part of a U.S. race with China on crypto and AI, increasing White House pressure on lawmakers.
- Senate Democrats have pushed for binding ethics rules to bar the president, vice president, senior officials and their families from profiting in crypto, and at least three senators have publicly opposed the measure without those changes.
- The bill would assign many on‑chain tokens to CFTC oversight while leaving investment‑contract assets to the SEC, but its path needs roughly 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and the recent death and absences in the Senate have narrowed the Republican margin.
- Markets and prediction prices have cut the odds of 2026 passage into the mid‑30s to low‑40s percent, and failure to clear the Senate before the August recess would likely push action into 2027 and leave regulators to write rules in the meantime.