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Citi Trims Constellation Brands Target to $145, Keeps Neutral as Valuation Debate Intensifies

A new bullish analysis highlights a historically low EV/EBIT multiple at odds with recent demand signals.

Overview

  • Citi lowered its price target on Constellation Brands to $145 from $155 on September 24 and reiterated a Neutral rating, citing softer scanner data and potential margin risk ahead of the October 6 fiscal Q2 2026 report.
  • Constellation Brands cut its fiscal 2026 outlook on September 2, guiding reported diluted EPS to $10.77–$11.07 and forecasting enterprise organic net sales down about 4% to 6%.
  • A fresh bull case from slo capital contends the stock trades near a 10.5x EV/EBIT, described as the lowest in its history and below 2008–2009 levels.
  • The thesis underscores the strength of Modelo, Corona and Pacifico and the company’s North American distribution network, and it cites projected FY2024 free cash flow of about $2.3 billion.
  • Recent coverage notes the share price was $133.02 on September 18, hedge fund holders dipped to 42 from 44 in Q2, and the stock is down roughly 25% since earlier bullish commentary.