Overview
- The January Citi poll of 35 analysts nudged the 2026 GDP forecast to 1.3% from 1.2%, with projections spanning 0.6% to 1.8% between Scotiabank at the low end and Banorte at the high end.
- Headline inflation for 2026 is pegged near 4.0%, above Banxico’s 3% target, with January pressures linked to higher excise taxes on tobacco and sugary drinks, new tariffs on non‑FTA imports, and the latest minimum wage hike.
- Markets expect Banxico’s next 25 bp cut around the May meeting, with a median year‑end policy rate of 6.50% for both 2026 and 2027; responses show a split on the exact timing of the first move.
- The peso is seen near 19.00 per dollar at end‑2026, within a 17.10–20.30 range, with a consensus of 19.50 for end‑2027.
- Commentary highlights weak private investment and institutional erosion as ongoing drags, while the government projects faster growth of 1.8%–2.8% and 2025 activity is estimated to have expanded about 0.4%.