Citi Survey Lifts Mexico’s 2026 Outlook to 1.3% Growth With 4% Inflation and Limited Easing

Overview

• Citi’s January poll of 35 institutions now pegs 2026 GDP growth at 1.3% after an estimated 0.4% in 2025, compared with Banco de México’s 1.1% midpoint projection for 2026.
• Analysts foresee headline and core inflation near 4% this year, above Banxico’s 3% target.
• Respondents expect a 25-basis-point cut by May and a 6.50% policy rate at end-2026, with the peso projected near 19 per US dollar.
• Forecast dispersion remains wide, with five houses (BNP Paribas, Banca Mifel, Banco Base, Bradesco BBI, Scotiabank) below 1% growth and Banorte at 1.8%.
• Short-term inflation pressure is seen from higher excise taxes on cigarettes and sugary drinks, new import tariffs and a larger minimum wage, with a January CPI rise around 0.51% month over month.