Citi Survey: Core Inflation Seen at 4.2% for 2025 as Banxico Cut Is Expected in November

Overview

• Thirty-six of 37 respondents expect a 25 basis point rate cut at Banxico’s November meeting, with one looking to December.
• The survey’s median places 2025 core inflation at 4.20%, above the 2–4% tolerance band, with pressures concentrated in services and food goods.
• For October, analysts project headline inflation of 0.45% month on month and 3.66% year on year, with core at 0.28% monthly and 4.28% annually, and the median forecast for headline inflation is 3.90% for 2025 and 3.80% for 2026.
• Policy rate medians are unchanged at 7.00% for end‑2025 and 6.50% for end‑2026, with next year’s forecasts ranging from 6.00% to 7.00%.
• Growth and currency views remain steady, with GDP seen up 0.5% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 and the peso at 19.00 per dollar this year and 19.50 next year.