Overview
- Citi raised its third‑quarter Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on Friday, citing slow progress in U.S.–Iran talks as the key reason for a higher near‑term price assumption.
- Brent and WTI futures moved higher in response, with Brent trading in the low $80s and WTI in the high $70s as traders reassessed shipping and security risks.
- Iran told reporters that a ‘general framework’ with Oman on Hormuz access has been reached but that the arrangement still needs higher‑level approval before commercial shipping can resume safely.
- The International Energy Agency says the region is suffering the worst supply disruption on record, with roughly 3.7 million barrels per day of annual output loss, about 3 million bpd of regional refining outages, and large storage draws tightening physical markets.
- Analyst views are split: Goldman sees Brent holding at $80–$90 without a confirmed deal or major escalation while some traders expect flows to normalise in Q3, leaving markets highly sensitive to any diplomatic or military shift and raising costs for freight, insurance and consumers.