Citi México Survey Sees Modest 2026 Growth, Firmer Peso, Rising Odds of a May Banxico Cut

Overview

• Eighteen of 35 analysts now expect a 25-basis-point cut at Banxico’s May meeting, up from 13 in the prior survey.
• The policy-rate consensus holds at 6.50% for both 2026 and 2027, with projections spanning a 6.0%–7.0% range.
• GDP expectations center on 1.3% growth in 2026, with medians of 0.4% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2027 and a reported 2026 range of 0.4%–1.8%.
• The peso outlook strengthened, with the end-2026 dollar forecast lowered to 18.75 MXN and the 2027 projection at 19.07 MXN.
• Analysts foresee a short-term inflation uptick in mid-January, yet they keep year-end 2026 general and core inflation at 4.0% and 2027 at 3.7%.