Overview

• Citi’s base case assigns 45% of projected growth to deposit substitution, with modeling that 2.5% of 2030 U.S. bank deposits move into stablecoins.
• In the new framework, 40% of growth comes from broader crypto-market expansion via higher annual issuance, with 15% from banknote substitution.
• The report estimates potential annual transactions of roughly $100 trillion in the base case and up to $200 trillion in the bull case if velocity reaches fiat-like levels.
• Analysts caution stablecoins will not overhaul well-functioning domestic payment rails and say bank-issued tokenized deposits could ultimately carry more transaction volume.
• Market capitalization stands near $280 billion today, as European banks pursue a euro stablecoin targeted for late 2026 to bolster regional payment sovereignty.