Overview

• Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE is placed at 34.8%, the PP at 19.8%, and Vox at 17.7% in the latest CIS barometer, leaving Vox just 2.1 points behind the PP.
• La Razón’s average of recent private polls estimates the PP at 32.3%, 12.5 points higher than the CIS figure, and portrays the PP as the likely winner in most surveys.
• Socialist sources cited by La Razón say the CIS favors them in its interpretations while defending the raw data as sound, with some in the party suspecting director José Félix Tezanos of shaping perceptions.
• The ‘sorpaso’ scenario sketched by the CIS is analyzed as possibly weakening right‑wing ‘voto útil’ appeals and energizing left‑leaning voters concerned about a stronger Vox.
• The PP publicly rejects the CIS outlook—its spokesperson Alma Ezcurra says non‑socialist polls give the PP victory—and La Razón reports Moncloa is pursuing a strategy to boost Vox at the PP’s expense.