Overview
- Shares have fallen about 68% from the June 23 peak near $298 to roughly $82, effectively round‑tripping to the IPO opening price.
- Circle’s 180‑day IPO lockup was set to lapse two days after its Q3 report, a timing that investors and analysts flagged as a likely source of near‑term volatility, with Mizuho noting that 58% of IPOs historically underperform after lockups expire.
- Operational results remained strong in Q3: USDC circulation rose 108% year over year to about $74 billion, revenue increased 66% to $740 million with a roughly $40 million beat, adjusted EBITDA climbed 78% to $166 million, and on‑chain volume reached $9.6 trillion, up 680%.
- J.P. Morgan upgraded Circle to Overweight and raised its price target to $100, describing the post‑unlock selloff as a buy‑low opportunity tied to growing stablecoin adoption.
- Mizuho warned that declining interest rates, slower USDC proliferation and rising distribution costs could pressure estimates, maintaining an Underperform view and trimming its price target to $70.