Overview
- Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million on Aug. 5, short of the $712 million Wall Street estimate while posting adjusted EPS of $0.18 and adjusted EBITDA of $143 million.
- Investors pushed the stock down about 2% after the report and the shares have shown sharp volatility, including a roughly 42% three-month drop and an 18% five-day bounce.
- Analysts are split on valuation: TD Cowen raised its target to $87 with a Buy rating while Morgan Stanley kept an Underweight stance and cut its target to $37, yet the 20-analyst average target sits near $98.53.
- USDC circulation ended the quarter at about $73.3 billion, down roughly 4.8% quarter over quarter, and lower short-term yields on reserves have reduced interest income that historically supported revenue.
- Markets are focused on Circle’s scheduled Sept. 16 Arc mainnet launch as the next major test of whether token sales, on-chain activity, and product adoption can generate steady fee-based revenue.